Disunited Nations

Just keep in mind that “normal” is far from synonymous with “comfortable,” much less “favorable.

France will lead the new Europe, not Germany

Higher birthrates among both the occupied Palestinians and deeply conservative Orthodox Jews means that by 2030 an enlarged Israel will be a Jewish-minority state that will not even want to converse with the Palestinians, much less grant political or territorial concessions.

The goal here—very unofficially—is the end of Russia as a state.

America’s inability to voice what it wants from the world is condemning it to a series of future conflicts that are both eminently preventable and wouldn’t have to be fought alone

Had the 9/11 attacks not occurred, American strategic policy versus both rising powers would have been quite different.

The inability of the Clinton, W Bush, and Obama administrations to even begin the conversation as to what might replace the Order, complemented by the breakdown in the Democratic and Republican parties, means Americans cannot even begin to define what they want out of the world until at least 2030.

Colonial Brazil wasn’t settled by pioneers who could work the land to become wealthy, but instead by people who started wealthy and so already had the money to lay down to build the necessary infrastructure.

Even if the Syrian Civil War ended today, there isn’t enough water and oil to feed the population. Syria will not—will never—recover.

In a bizarre turn of events, easily defensible, militarily potent, politically stable Iran now needs the global Order more than indefensible, militarily weak, politically unstable Saudi Arabia—just as that Order bleeds away.