Tim Harford

The Data Detective

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From “one of the great (greatest?) contemporary popular writers on economics” (Tyler Cowen) comes a smart, lively, and encouraging rethinking of how to use statistics.
Today we think statistics are the enemy, numbers used to mislead and confuse us. That's a mistake, Tim Harford says in The Data Detective. We shouldn't be suspicious of statistics—we need to understand what they mean and how they can improve our lives: they are, at heart, human behavior seen through the prism of numbers and are often “the only way of grasping much of what is going on around us.” If we can toss aside our fears and learn to approach them clearly—understanding how our own preconceptions lead us astray—statistics can point to ways we can live better and work smarter.
As “perhaps the best popular economics writer in the world” (New Statesman), Tim Harford is an expert at taking complicated ideas and untangling them for millions of readers. In The…
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  • Дмитрий Безугловmembagikan kesantahun lalu
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    Увлекательный гид по употреблению статистических данных; каждая глава красиво сконструирована — Тим ведёт читателя через большой и сложный пример из жизни (как главный специалист по Вермееру признал оригиналом фальшивку и почему же он был рад ошибаться; как Флоренс Найтингейл удалось бороться с мнением большинства врачей, согласно которому ничего нельзя поделать со смертностью от инфекционных заболеваний), и тд.
    Отлично и легко написано.

Kutipan

  • Дмитрий Безугловmembuat kutipantahun lalu
    This is revolutionary stuff. Yet four years after the original Nature paper was published, Nature News had sad tidings to convey: the latest flu outbreak had claimed an unexpected victim—Google Flu Trends. After reliably providing a swift and accurate account of flu outbreaks for several winters, the theory-free, data-rich model lost its nose for where flu was going.
  • Дмитрий Безугловmembuat kutipantahun lalu
    Next time you’re in a politically heated argument, try asking your interlocutor not to justify herself, but simply to explain the policy in question.

    Взять на заметку!

  • Дмитрий Безугловmembuat kutipantahun lalu
    Rozenblit and Keil called this “the illusion of explanatory depth.” The illusion of explanatory depth is a curiosity killer and a trap. If we think we already understand, why go deeper? Why ask questions? It is striking that it was so easy to get people to pull back from their earlier confidence: all it took was to get them to reflect on the gaps in their knowledge.

    Очень хорошее наблюдение! Иллюзия объяснительной глубины.

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