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Hedge Fund Market Wizards
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641 halaman cetak
- Tahun publikasi
- 2009
Kutipan
- Fkh chaosmembuat kutipan5 tahun yang lalu
Traders who are successful over the long run adapt. If they do use rules, and you meet them 10 years later, they will have broken those rules. Why? Because the world changed. Rules are only applicable to a market at a specific time. Traders who fail may have great rules that work, but then stop working. They stick to the rules because the rules used to work, and they are quite annoyed that they are losing even though they are still doing what they used to do. They don’t realize that the world has moved on without them.
Besides failure - Fkh chaosmembuat kutipan5 tahun yang laluIn a situation like this where there is a binary outcome that is highly uncertain, but the probabilities are different from what the market seems to be pricing, do you participate in the market?
That is the main part of what I do. I look for deviations between the fundamental probability distribution I perceive and the probability distribution priced in by the market.
Being short Spanish debt is a trade where the downside is limited to the annual carry, but the upside can be very substantial. It seems that an inherent characteristic of most of your trades is that they have an asymmetric quality—the maximum loss is limited, but the profit potential is open-ended. - Fkh chaosmembuat kutipan5 tahun yang laluThe economic downturn led to a big move in fixed income that provided a much calmer way to play that idea than a direct trade in equities.
So rather than consider the short side of the Nasdaq, you traded the long side of the bonds.
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